The US cranberry harvest is terrible - if you’d had Helios, you would’ve known that months ago
The weighted climate risk for Cranberries in the United States for the past 6 months.
This year, the cranberry harvest in the United States is facing its greatest challenge yet due to a severe drought, including New Jersey, one of the nation’s top cranberry-producing states. Farmers like Stephen V. Lee III, who has worked the land for decades, have described the situation as a crisis, noting that “I haven’t seen this in my lifetime.” The Lee Brothers Farm, which typically draws water from the Wading River, saw a drastic reduction in rainfall—only 1.54 inches from August to October, compared to more than 12 inches in the previous two years. This forced farmers to rely heavily on costly well pumping, adding to their operational burdens. As a result, the harvest has faced delays, with farmers like William Cutts remarking that "this is certainly the worst year that I’ve ever seen".
Our AI platform has been tracking this risk since early in the growing season, providing valuable insights into how persistent drought conditions would likely impact cranberry yields. In our September 2024 report, our platform highlighted that the United States faced a "moderate climate risk" with an increased trend toward “too dry” conditions, especially in key cranberry-producing regions. By October, the climate risk rating rose significantly, highlighting the vulnerability of cranberry farms to drought and water shortages. This is the true value of our climate risk platform, which enabled early alerts to clients, who were able to anticipate and mitigate this risk months in advance. By leveraging millions of data points, the Helios platform forecasted reduced cranberry yield due to water scarcity—an invaluable insight for procurement managers seeking to mitigate supply chain disruptions before they happen.
Type of risk for the past two months for Cranberries in the United States. Note the high levels of “too dry” for all of October.
With a diminished cranberry supply, the effects are expected to ripple through the supply chain. Retailers and supermarkets may see cranberry prices increase due to constrained availability, likely impacting individual consumers as well. While cooperative agreements, such as those with Ocean Spray, help moderate price spikes by pooling resources from multiple states, the sheer scale of this year’s drought could still influence cranberry-related products. Prices for Thanksgiving favorites, like fresh cranberries and canned cranberry sauce, will inch higher, reflecting the broader impact on growers who are investing heavily in pumping infrastructure to make up for the lack of natural water sources.
The cranberry crisis is a stark example of how climate change is accelerating, driving more frequent and intense droughts, and altering rainfall patterns across the United States. Data from our platform shows a growing trend in erratic weather conditions, emphasizing the need for real-time, precision forecasting tools. For procurement leaders, there is no excuse for relying on traditional methods and outdated data in a world where climate and price volatility will only accelerate.
