Helios AI climate risk signals are extremely predictive of major agricultural commodity prices and have been proven very profitable over a 10-year backtest.

Helios helped customers spot the West African cocoa beans supply shortage four months before the media reported it and seven months before prices skyrocketed, showcasing the ability to predict supply chain disruptions.

How effective is our platform at predicting the price of soft commodities? In this blog post, we tested the predictiveness of Helios’ climate risk signals against Corn prices, to identify the optimal long-only trading strategy.

The UK's 2024 pumpkin shortage has cast quite a shadow over Halloween festivities. Many pumpkins are still green due to continuous rainfall, leaving businesses struggling to meet the spooky season’s demand. Helios detected the abnormal precipitation patterns at the end of September 2024, flagging a major risk for crop disruption.

In this blog post, we tested the predictiveness of Helios’ climate risk signals against Cocoa prices, to identify the optimal long only trading strategy. Helios risk signals are leading indicators for price - the higher the risk, the more likely it is that prices will rise (i.e., a higher climate risk signals a higher likelihood of crop disruptions).

Vietnam's April 2024 drought caused lower yields, straining already tight stockpiles and driving coffee prices to a 45-year high. The Helios platform detected signals from drought-affected coffee regions in Vietnam, predicting the price surge ahead of media reports.

Helios notified users of an upcoming price increase in corn three weeks before the media reported it, and prices increased, showcasing the ability to predict supply chain disruptions and price fluctuations.

Helios helped customers identify the Peruvian avocado disruption four months before prices skyrocketed, showcasing the ability to predict supply chain disruptions before the rest of the industry.

In Brest, France, the 2023 carrot harvest faced severe challenges due to adverse weather conditions. Helios users were immediately alerted of the high-risk situation, allowing them to modify their orders and obtain new contracts to ensure product quality.

Unexpected frost-like temperatures threatened flowering apricot trees from late November to early spring. Helios detected this anomaly five months prior to media reports, allowing users to secure alternative suppliers before a 60% price surge.

Maijan, Peru, faced serious disruptions in their asparagus supply over the summer of 2024 due to drought brought on by El Niño circumstances. Helios platform users were immediately informed about the disruption, three months before the media reported it online.

Helios assisted customers in recognizing the disruption of Mexican lemons beginning in November 2023, ten months before lemon prices increased by 50% and eight months before the media reported on the issue.

Helios helped customers identify the Colombian banana disruption months before prices skyrocketed by 45%, showcasing the ability of the Helios platform to predict and identify supply chain disruptions before the rest of the industry.

In March, the media reports confirmed that drought conditions in January and February had severely impacted Argentina's pear-growing regions, reducing supply by 7% and producing smaller, less juicy fruit. Helios flagged the drought in Argentina starting in October 2023 five months before it was reported by the media.