The Chocolate Crisis: How Climate Change is Reshaping Easter Treats

Every spring, children around the world wake up on Easter morning excited to hunt for chocolate eggs and bunnies. In fact, an estimated 94% of people who celebrate the holiday do so with chocolate. 

But this year, behind the scenes, the cocoa industry is facing a crisis that could make these beloved treats harder to find, as well as significantly more expensive. And as producers pivot their operations in the face of escalating global cocoa prices, the deep association between Easter and chocolate could start to fade, paving the way for new candy traditions built on more sustainable supply chains. 

Climate change isn’t stopping 

We spend our days analyzing climate-driven agricultural disruptions, and the data is clear: cocoa farming is becoming increasingly unsustainable. In fact, Helios models pinpointed months ago the looming threat of extreme droughts, excessive rainfall, and fungal diseases destroying cocoa trees. 

Unfortunately, it seems these dramatic weather events aren’t going away. And ultimately, if the patterns don’t shift, the affordable chocolate candies many of us indulge in today could quickly become a treat reserved only for the wealthy. 

Rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and more frequent outbreaks of crop diseases are reducing yields in key cocoa-producing regions, sending the market into a panic and igniting concern over the long-term availability of a raw ingredient used around the world. In Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire—where over two-thirds of the world’s cocoa is grown—farmers are already struggling with soil degradation and unpredictable weather that makes it harder to maintain consistent production. 

Surging prices pressure producers

The impact is already staggering, with cocoa prices recently hitting a 46-year high. And the trend isn’t slowing down. Compounding the problem: It’s not easy or cheap to move production to areas less impacted by climate change. As a result, in the near-term, chocolate manufacturers will continue to raise prices and shrink portion sizes. By the time Easter arrives, some companies may need to even replace real cocoa with cheaper alternatives. 

And if the climate trends continue, Easter baskets in 2035 might look very different—featuring fewer chocolate eggs and more non-cocoa confections. 

What’s the impact on the supply chain? 

Expect more brands to trim costs by turning to carob-based alternatives, which mimic the taste of chocolate without requiring cocoa beans. There may also be a surge in innovative sweets without natural cocoa, like chickpea-based chocolate substitutes or lab-grown cocoa made through fermentation, which can be developed nearly anywhere, reducing the supply chain risk for candy producers. 

Companies might even start marketing “limited-edition premium cocoa” Easter treats, similar to how fine wines and rare truffles are sold today. These pricier options would likely be predominantly, or all natural cocoa – essentially the same items available today, just for a higher cost to mitigate the increased production prices. 

And as cocoa production shifts to more climate-resilient but expensive areas like Ecuador and Brazil, specialty chocolates may become a luxury rather than a holiday staple.

A chance for new traditions 

But Easter isn’t just about chocolate—it’s about joy, tradition, and celebration. Candy producers have an opportunity to embrace new traditions, supported by more resilient and cost-effective supply chains. 

For example, honey-based candies, gourmet marshmallows, and pastel-colored meringues can bring the same sweetness to an Easter basket without the climate and operational risk. 

Meanwhile, locally-sourced fruit baskets, artisanal baked goods, or even interactive gifts like DIY cookie decorating kits can also create a fun and delicious experience for kids and adults alike, while eliminating the challenges that come with sourcing materials globally. 

Conclusion: Keeping the holiday sweet

While the Easter Bunny may need to get creative in the coming years, there’s no shortage of ways to keep the holiday sweet and budget-friendly for producers and customers alike. 

By pursuing new cocoa alternatives, diversifying production, and embracing locally-made goods, companies can mitigate their supply chain risk, while still helping to keep Easter memorable for those who celebrate.