Is Ghana's devastating drought the future?
Northern Ghana is experiencing one of the worst droughts in its history, which has significantly impacted the country's grain production, particularly in regions that account for about 62% of Ghana's grain output.
Over the past two months, drought and near-drought conditions have escalated, putting as much as 1.8 million hectares of land at risk. According to Agriculture Minister Bryan Acheampong, roughly half of this area is already affected, threatening crop yields and leading to predictions of a substantial shortfall in grain availability.
In response, the Ghanaian government has imposed a ban on the export of rice, corn, and soy to stave off a potential nationwide food shortage. This isn’t the first time we’ve talked about export bans as a tool used by governments to mitigate food shortages (remember the India rice ban?), but our concern is that they’ll become the go-to mechanism and dramatically increase commodity price volatility. Ghana blames its own ban on neighboring countries’ bans, reflecting a broader regional crisis exacerbated by climate conditions.
The impact of the drought on grain production has been severe, with farmers in the affected areas struggling to sustain their crops. The government has announced plans to raise $500 million to mitigate the effects of this crisis, including $155 million in support from the World Bank and other development partners. Part of this funding will be used to compensate farmers, with payments of 1,000 cedis ($64) per hectare for those whose crops have failed. Additionally, Ghana plans to import grains to cover the shortfall, although this move could weaken the national currency and increase food inflation, compounding the economic strain on households already burdened by an annual inflation rate above 20%.
The drought and the resulting reduction in grain production have serious implications for food security in Ghana and the broader West African region. With reduced local production, reliance on imports will likely increase, driving up food prices and making staple grains less accessible to vulnerable populations. In regions where food security is already fragile, such disruptions can lead to increased malnutrition and food scarcity. Worse, as neighboring countries like Nigeria and Ivory Coast also face similar export restrictions due to climate-induced crop failures, the cumulative effect could strain regional food supply chains and heighten the risk of a food security crisis across West Africa.
Where to go from here
In the short term, it is hard to find much hope - the situation in Ghana is a stark reminder of the growing volatility in our climate and its detrimental impacts on agriculture. Our analysis sees the current drought not as an isolated event but part of a troubling pattern of increased climate variability, with extreme weather conditions becoming more frequent and intense. As global temperatures rise, we can expect these disruptions to continue, posing significant challenges to food production systems worldwide. That said, remember that the people who start and join technology start-ups are inherently an optimistic bunch!
We believe that in the medium term, with the help of artificial intelligence and climate risk technology, there is much that can be done. At a minimum, governments could start collaborating with each other to predict agricultural disruptions ahead of time - and helping each other mitigate them before they happen. They could better proactively engage with NGOs and IGOs to support this collaboration and, even one day (look at us being optimistic!), identify how they could share expertise across borders as new countries become better suited to grow crops that previously excelled in other countries. There is much that can be done and we are here to support those leaders in all the ways we can as we make the transition to a better future!
