Helios’s 91% Success Rate in Detecting Global Supply Disruptions
The results of our backtesting analysis of how successful the Helios Platform is at catching agricultural supply disruptions for different commodities.
Background
In today’s globalized economy, supply chain disruptions can have a cascading effect on businesses, markets, and consumers. For industries reliant on agricultural commodities, unexpected events—ranging from climate disasters to logistical issues—can impact yields, drive up costs, and create volatility. At Helios, our mission is to provide businesses with real-time, actionable intelligence to mitigate these risks. To assess the effectiveness of our platform, we conducted a five-year analysis of disruptions affecting three different commodity types: perennials with a year-round growing season, perennials with a defined growing season, and annual crops (which need to be replanted each year). Pineapples, table grapes, and durum wheat were selected for the analysis. Pineapples represent year-round perennials, while table grapes represent perennials with a defined growing season and durum wheat represents annuals.
The Challenge
Over the past five years, the agricultural supply chain has experienced significant disruptions due to extreme weather, geopolitical instability, and other unforeseen events. However, businesses have historically struggled to detect these disruptions in real-time, leading to unexpected shortages, price spikes, and operational inefficiencies.
To validate our platform’s accuracy, we set out to answer a key question: How well did Helios detect major disruptions affecting these commodities worldwide? Our goal was to analyze real-world events, compare them against our platform’s detection capabilities, and assess whether businesses using Helios would have gained a critical early warning advantage.
Our first step was to conduct the manual research - how many disruptions were there in each market over the past 5 years? Why did they happen? To make sure we were catching as many disruptions as possible, we researched disruptions in the past 5 years for ALL countries that make up 90% of the production of the commodity worldwide. For pineapples, that is 25 countries (making up 93%). For table grapes, it’s 15 countries (making up 98%). For durum wheat, that is 22 countries (making up 91%). Our next step, of course, was conducting the backtesting to see how Helios’s CommodiTrack did.
Helios’s Detection Success
Our analysis revealed that Helios successfully detected a vast majority of disruptions over the past five years. Specifically, Helios was able to successfully detect:
Pineapples: 92.3% of disruptions (12/13)
Table Grapes: 87.1% of disruptions (27/31)
Durum Wheat: 93.6% of disruptions (15/16)
The results above represent our platform’s effectiveness in capturing disruptions across different types of commodities. The significant number of detected disruptions compared to undetected disruptions underscores the strength of Helios’s monitoring capabilities. This strong detection rate reinforces the value of our predictive analytics in providing businesses with early warning signals for supply chain resilience.
Methodology & Findings
To determine whether Helios successfully detected a disruption, we evaluated key metrics such as the Weighted Average Percentage of Risk (WA%R), which measures the proportion of high-risk growing locations relative to all key locations in the global market. A jump in the WA%R indicates climate anomalies outside historical norms or weather conditions unsuitable for crop growth. High WA%R levels often signal poor growing seasons, leading to lower yields, quality issues, and price shifts before such impacts are reported in the media.
A disruption was considered “caught” if :
WA%R values showed significant spikes over 50% during the event
WA%R values stayed elevated for over 1 week or jumped by at least 25% during the event
The correct reason (drought, heatwave, flooding, etc) was flagged as the reason for the increase in the WA%R values.
Key examples of disruptions we caught include:
Table Grapes: Hurricane Hilary (August 2023) severely impacted table grape production in California’s San Joaquin Valley. Helios successfully detected elevated climate risk levels and WA%R (Weighted Average Percentage of Risk) spikes, signaling potential disruption weeks before the event.
Durum Wheat: Heavy and nonstop rains in France (June - August 2024) severely affected durum wheat production, leading to quality and yield concerns. Helios detected these extreme weather conditions early, with WA%R indicators hitting 50% in mid-June and remaining elevated through August, signaling persistent climate risks.
Pineapples: El Niño, heatwave, and drought conditions in Thailand (January - June 2024) caused significant challenges for pineapple farmers. Helios successfully detected the rising climate risks, with WA%R indicators reaching 100% for several days, highlighting severe weather anomalies impacting production.
The Helios Advantage
Helios reports and platform data can be leveraged to make informed purchasing decisions, enhance contract negotiations, and improve trading strategies. By providing a quantitative, third-party source of truth, Helios enables businesses to better explain price adjustments, procurement strategies, and supply chain decisions to buyers. Climate risk insights serve as leading indicators of price shifts, helping companies stay ahead of market volatility.
As supply chains grow more complex and climate risks intensify, businesses must adopt proactive strategies to stay ahead. Helios continues to refine its models to ensure even greater accuracy and predictive power, enabling supply chain leaders to navigate an increasingly uncertain world.
This five-year assessment validates that Helios provides real-time intelligence that helps companies stay ahead of risk, optimize procurement strategies, and ensure continuity in their operations. For organizations looking to strengthen supply chain resilience, Helios is the data-driven partner they need.
