Climate’s Impact on the U.S. Apple Harvest

This apple season is truly a rollercoaster ride for the U.S. apple industry, with some regions expecting bumper crops and others bracing for disappointing yields. Experts are predicting a harvest of about 260 million bushels—about 5% lower than last year's 274 million. So, what's causing this ups and downs in apple production? Well, it seems that this year, the weather has been throwing a few unexpected curveballs.

Picture this: unexpected frosts where they don't belong, droughts in usually lush areas, and late rainfall that can’t seem to keep a schedule. These unpredictable weather patterns have created challenging conditions, with apples experiencing both extreme heat and unexpected cold. The Pacific Northwest, which supplies about 60% of U.S. apples, has been hit hard, dealing with everything from heatwaves to surprise storms. Washington, the leading apple-producing state, is expecting just 156 million bushels this year, down from 171 million last year.

Remember when Red Delicious was the king of the orchard? Well, move over, because Honeycrisp is taking over - and it’s not for the reason you think.

It's not just the climate that's changing; our apple preferences are evolving too. Last year, Honeycrisp alone made up 11.5% of total U.S. apple production. These newer varieties are bred to handle climate craziness better than their old-school cousins, and they taste amazing, winning over our taste buds while staying resilient on the trees.

Meanwhile, in the Midwest, states like Wisconsin and Michigan have faced their own challenges. After a warm spring tricked trees into blooming early, a cold snap did its damage, reducing the potential crop. This weather whiplash isn't just a one-time event; it could affect apple production for years to come. Picture attempting to cultivate the ideal apple while the weather shifts more rapidly than you can swipe through your TikTok feed! Consequently, fewer apples may reach the supermarket, and those that do might be smaller or less appealing. Additionally, with supply dwindling, prices could begin to rise - and quickly.

Let's not forget the labor shortages making things tough for apple growers this season. With fewer hands to pick the apples, some harvests might be left on the trees longer than ideal, affecting both quantity and quality. This labor crunch adds another layer of complexity, potentially impacting prices and availability.

Now, let's bring technology into the conversation—specifically, the Helios platform. Think of it as a super-smart climate risk app that's always one step ahead. It tracks everything from weather patterns to risk to yields. So, when Helios detects risks, like a cold snap in Washington, it immediately informs stakeholders, helping everyone stay ahead of the game. This tech helps smooth out rough patches, ensuring that even if the weather doesn't cooperate, apples still find their way to the grocery store without procurement teams scrambling. So, while this season might not be perfect, you can still expect plenty of apples on the shelves—though you might need to pay a little more for that perfect Honeycrisp.